Labour Memo

MEMO [TO ALL]

To: The Public

From: The party of the centre / moderates

Re: 2012: Setting the Scene

The leak of the Labour Party strategy memo today was perhaps not as bad as first appeared and certainly has a number of interesting and important messages for Labour members which are similar to my own conclusions.

The memo, ironically written by the former Conservative Election Strategy supremo Shaun Woodward (who worked alongside Cameron in the 1992 Conservative Campaign team and who is despised by him) states that Labour is in a strong position when compared with other opposition parties after government, and that we are well positioned to improve our position and build on most accepted poll leads that we held on average last year.

He is absolutely right, as this blog has suggested, the Labour Party is united and occupies the moderate and centrist positions on a number of key policy issues and on this turf we must remain.

I absolutely agree that the Tories are now shifting to the right which represents a major strategic and electoral mistake for them.

The Euroloon fraternity locally, represented by Mark Reckless and Tracey Crouch are of course very pleased to see the party move back into the right wing comfort zone. The public however have the impression that the Tory detoxification exercise has all but collapsed - the nasty party is back.

The memo states

"Analysis of Tory party policy, carried out over the summer, convincingly demonstrates the Conservatives are shifting to a distinctly rightwing strategy, in both their chosen focus on issues and their solutions,"

"Cameron clearly recognises some of the danger he faces in his repositioning. He is still seeking to separate himself out from a toxic Tory brand and has assumed a presidential role and style. But the Tories have become far less worried about inhabiting the centre ground they once cultivated and more worried about any perception of appearing weak."

"They do not appear to be seeking long-term solutions to Britain's real challenges and problems"

There is now an opportunity for Labour to move back onto the centre ground but we need to do some heavy lifting on economic credibility and we need the public to notice we are doing it.

A number of heavy hitters making noises could be presented as a party split and at war with itself, or it could be used as a means to articulate a new narrative on the economy. An argument takes press attention and allows differentiation and markers to be set. The public tell focus groups Ed needs to up his game; a few surrogates take to the air to state the same (as the public); and within weeks a shift in leadership. I suspect we will see more.

The public perception is that the Tories are inhoc to big business (primarily investment banks, private equity and spivs) - they are the elite - the establishment and represent the vestige interests. They dont like Labour still but they also know that all is not working with Cameron.

The polls being so close reflects the fact that the electorate moved to the left between 1997-2010 and that the Tories are now trying to push them to the right a little bit too quickly, and in so doing damaging the Tory brand:

"But here is the paradox: whilst the Tories made changes before the election – intended to convince the public they were compassionate – since the election (and especially in the last few months) the Tories have taken major strides back towards their ideological roots. Buffeted by events, there is a growing incoherence between 'liberal conservatism' and the increasingly shrill language the Tories are using as they vacate the centre ground."

Cameron is and should be the only target for Labour and he does have an achilles heel.

Cameron is a light-weight who failed to win the general election with all the fair winds behind him, he is a fop, an elitest and he gets things wrong time and time again. He is not a 'grocers daughter' and did not achieve his position by meritocracy; he won it from a call from the Palace! He is a born Tory not a grafter and that image will never shift enough for a big majority; ever.

The media have been totally on side since his election yet the Tories barely bobble around the 38% mark. The trick for Labour is to bank the Liberal Democrat vote and outflank him in the centre which the Tory party is allowing with grins. Target Cameron as an out-of-touch elitest which even Tory voters think is true; focus on his CV, his financial backers, his education and background and keep on reminding people.

Labour do need a new narrative on the economy and accepting some deficit reduction and we need the public to be watching whilst we do it; mirroring Tory cuts in some areas will nullify any attack and allowing Labour to be presented as sensible on others we oppose

A move to a more fiscally neutral position on deficit reduction where we accept that cuts have to be made but that Labour would be fairer, nicer, better at delivering them would be a good position to be in 6 months time. Post-Olymics the economy may see recovery say we need to be positioned to take this forward.

Labour can also present the Tories as fiscally irresponsible on the Euro and Europe. Not now, but in six to twelve months time this blog predicts the Eurozone crisis will stabilise; rest assured we will point back at those that called for its implosion and ask the electorate whether that was sensible in the middle of a downturn.

Irresponsible partisan posturing which would have ruined our economic recovery at a key moment of recovery.

Miliband does need to improve his personal profile and leadership position; I suspect you will see much more of that over the next six months helped by 'managed debate'. Cameron was in a very similar position this far into his term as opposition leader and did exactly the same.

The Tories know that Ed is not damaged goods and that the public still have an open judgement on him. This is better than Hague and Howard and he is immeasurably stronger than IDS; if he can stiffen the sinews and stand up on issues in the centre they will respond positively to the Labour brand; contrast it with the elitest Tories who are trying to move the public too far too fast to the right and the vote share wont slip beneath 40%.

The Tory attacks on Ed show wobbles in the Tory Party and the recent poll fillip does not reflect a sustained gain. They are making an ideological mistake but Labour needs to be positioned to gain by understanding our weaknesses and targeting there's.