FU? What next...

This blog called it right on Cameron. It suspected he would have a u-turn on the Fiscal Union and it was proved right.

Cameron has been two-faced by stating that the EU could not use the facilities of the European Union in November and now doing an about u-turn on this position and is now actively allowing them to use the institutions of the EU.

Much like the V for Vendetta sketch with the domino's I can tell you what will happen next.

The remaining 25 EU states will now negotiate a new binding Fiscal Union compact which Britain will tacitly allow through the use of EU bureaucrats and institutions which you, the UK taxpayer will fund.

The Fiscal Union compact will be agreed in mid-late 2012 and will form a binding compact with all the states involved.

Over the next 2-3 years Brussels will either use 'ratchet clauses' already written into the Lisbon Treaty to add a fiscal union requirement into the existing Lisbon Treaty; Britain will win a concession to the Tobin Tax. Alternatively, and more likely it will form a simplified revision procedure to get it through without Cameron seeking the consent of the public.

The ratchet clause is where EU policies that require unanimous backing amongst member states could in future be carried by a majority instead. But already under the Lisbon Treaty, all member states have to agree to switch to majority voting in a particular area before it can happen. I suspect this will not happen because it would trigger a referendum.

Alternatively, and more likely, it will form a simplified revision procedure which Cameron can sign up to without fear of a referndum. The simplified revision procedure, which applies only to part three of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and cannot increase the powers of the EU, sees changes simply agreed in the European Council by a decision before being ratified by each state.

Cameron can therefore claim he is not subject to a referendum lock as per Conservative-sponsored legislation in Parliament.

If I were a Europhobe Tory tonight i'd accept that you either work for a federalist Cameron leadership or you join a party which is truly anti-European, UKIP.