Just yesterday this blog speculated on what the need for a budget of growth for Medway – specifically for those areas deepest in urban Medway that have been identified as being the hardest hit from public spending cuts.
The headline is that the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its growth forecasts from 2.1% to 1.7% this year and coupled with inflationary pressures, people across Medway are suffering.
Government policy today is clearly hedged on private sector employment picking up the unemployment figures from public sector job cuts.
In areas such as Medway – with the three largest employers being the NHS, the university sector and the council – this is crucial to families right across the towns, and indeed carries similar implications for the whole region. Whilst we wait to see if this Governments bet is correct we should be fighting for these areas to get the most efficient resource and support for private sector growth – such as campaigning for Medway to become one of the today announced Enterprise Zones – sadly, we will not get a look in!
Tackling unemployment is particularly important to young people in Medway, with the area facing youth unemployment rates (for 16-24 year olds) that are at their highest for decades. Medway must counteract the so called 'Brain Drain' and retain young graduates, as well as supporting non-graduates, to ease transition into employment. Whilst the budget today announced increased apprenticeships and work experience places, Nick Pearce in the FT rightly commented that neither of these programmes is as generously funded as Labour's Future Jobs Fund, which was scrapped by the current Government.
However, there were some positive announcements for people in the Medway today, the reduction in Fuel Duty is good news for many – both in urban and rural areas, such as the Peninsula, with limited public transport and long travel distances – but the 1p decrease should be viewed in the context of the 3p VAT rise (which isn't being altered) and the possibility of significant fluctuations in global oil prices, which the 1p decrease won't prevent.
But what does this mean to people living their daily lives in Rochester, or Strood or Chatham?
One has to remember that people are being bombarded from every angle, with the IFS accusing the treasury of giving a little with one hand and taking a lot with the other.
Personal taxation will play a crucial element, with reports concluding average households suffering a £600 decrease in available income each year.
George Osborne's budget priorities are also somewhat concerning. It seems that the focus is on private sector growth – which isn't a bad thing in itself – but at the behest of ordinary people and the public sector.
It will take a number of days to unpick the detail of today’s budget, and the months and years ahead to verify its impact. Budgets are an example of political theatre but they do matter.
The take-home message today is the continuation of the Government’s dangerous gamble that the private sector can pick up the pieces of billions in public sector cuts, imposed too deep and too fast, by this Conservative-led Government.
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