A predicted win for Labour in the Barnsley Central by-election on Thursday night, with some interesting vote swings which supports previous polling that voters are deserting the Liberal Democrats en-masse since May.
Local Tories jumped on it by saying a 'donkey in a red rosette' could have won the seat which given the winning candidate, Dan Jarvis (pictured left), is a former soldier who fought for our country, highlights a total lack of respect and actually professional courtesy for our former servicemen. Other Tories have smeared the area instead of accepting that people may have had reason to vote against the coalition.
Its all part of the online negativity and actual nastiness that is on public display from Medway Conservatives, and those who effectively speak for them. It shows clearly the Tories are running scared in May.
The ICM and YouGov breakdowns all now show a clear loss of support for Nick Clegg with 30-50% of their former vote directly transferring to Labour. This will have a significant impact in areas in Medway where the Liberal Democrats traditionally poll well.
I do not think you can translate from one by-election what will happen in Medway, but supported with polling from all major pollsters, we can now predict the Liberals will probably loose significant vote share. They are threatened in both Gillingham seats by Labour and the Tories in Watling.
Given we have seen a decline in Liberal Democrat activity across the whole of Medway since the late 1980s/1990s this blog is highlighting the fact that the party is now at risk of being seen as a real bit-part player for not only the short term but the long term as well. They simply failed to use the good times (2004-2010) to build and attract new talent. Look at Labour, who despite the defeat in May 2010 have bounced back with a new bench of talent and you can see the stark difference.
There are also rumours that there could be a deal in consideration in the Gillingham central seats, that the Tories may not field candidates in Gillingham so effectively pitching a coalition candidate against Labour. At this stage, no concrete evidence of such a backroom deal though we will know in less than a month! This hearsay evidence supported by the fact that the Medway Liberal Democrat leader appears happy to support the Conservative cuts budget, and is happy to be pictured alongside the Tory MP for the area in the local press.
We will know in less than a month; but never trust the Liberal Democrats. As the Andy Stamp revelations reveal, they are certainly not open and transparent.
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