Australia Votes

Some choice cuts from the Australian Election...

The election is apparently too close to call with the New Labor Party under Welsh-born Julia Gillard v London-born, Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott is standing for the Liberal Party. Not lost is the irony that in Australia this is actually the Conservative Party equivalent. It is all in the name...

The Liberal Party is also in coalition with the Australian Nationals, who are the equivalent in lunacy of the Scottish & Welsh Nationalists.

The only other major party is the Australian Green Party who occupy the ground to the left of Labor. They are widely predicted to support Labor in a coalition if they do well.

Here are some choice cuts: Firstly the

Liberal Party:

Personal attacks from the Liberal Party... backstabber, harsh words. Designed for cinema or quick TV adverts. Short, sharp, snappy...

Comedy capers. South Park-esque and is actually an official PEB. Happy bunch those Liberal activists. This PEB was designed for the internet... its a viral attack add.

Is this supposed be a Labor voter down-under? Apparently this man is a pop star! Are the Liberals trying to portray Angry Andersen as a key switcher? Something of the 'Joe the Plumber' about him...

Labor Party

Personal attack. Labor strategy is character attack; similar to the anti Michael Howard approach in 2005. Abbott was a former Liberal Minister who cut health, similar to Howard who cut Police. This add is interesting as the presentation of cuts is likely to feature in future Labour Party PEBs in the UK. Expect similar to this in future elections for UK.

Looks like the economy, schools and immigration are the issues. Wow, are we talking policy. This PEB has the hint of 'governing party' about it. This PEB was released when Labor was initially in the lead.

Typical Labor Attack add more recent. Policy substance. Note the Forward not Back symbolism. Looks like they have taken some lessons from 2005 in UK.

Australia Future not Back. Similar to the UK Election in 2005 where its a choice between an old Liberal figure with a dated ideology and a forward future with Labor. Clear juxtapose; forward not back.

Kingsnorth Resurrected?

Despite the victory last year by local activists against the expansion of Kingsnorth Power station, it appears that the Liberal Democrat and Conservative Government has once again showed its total and utter duplicity and dishonesty.

The coalition is watering down a commitment to tough new environmental emissions standards, resurrecting the very real possibility of the return of dirty coal-fired power stations, including at our very own Kingsnorth.

This blog supported Green organisations and local campaigners during the anti-Kingsnorth campaign because it did not believe that the science of sequestration had been tested or proven on the scale required for Kingsnorth. In addition, this blog raised the very real concern of air quality and the fact that Medway already suffers from poor quality air, but would only get worse if an expanded dirty coal power station was situated nearby.

Green groups are aghast that a flagship policy called for in opposition by both Lib Dems and Tories, and which they last year tried to force on the Labour government, will now not be implemented in the coalition's first energy bill to be published this year.

This is a bare-faced lie given to Liberal Democrat supporters. Local PPCs and MPs made political hay out of the issue and even attended the event. The same anti-Kingsnorth Lib Dems are now silent. Disgraceful behaviour which shows opportunism at its worst.

The criticism of the Liberal Democrat and Conservative commitment to green issues follows news last week that nature reserves could be sold off as countryside protection measures also bear the brunt of budget cuts in the Department for Environment.

Introducing a so-called "environmental performance standard" (EPS) for power companies would have restricted greenhouse gas emissions from coal and gas plants and encouraged companies wishing to build to use more efficient technology.

The introduction of an EPS was personally championed by David Cameron, George Osborne and Nick Clegg when in opposition; their opposition to Kingsnorth became something of a cause célèbre – and even features in the coalition agreement – but was opposed by energy companies and Tory backbenchers.

The chief executive at one coal-plant operating company warned that the UK's renewable energy technology – which would be used to help new plants meet the target – was too undeveloped to make the EPS feasible.

Now government sources confirm they will not be bringing forward legislation in the autumn and will instead spend the summer working on "the larger picture". They will open a consultation on the idea in the autumn with the results being presented to parliament as a white paper in the new year.

Green campaigners believe this is noncommittal for a policy both parts of the coalition said could be implemented immediately when in opposition.

They believe a delay in the introduction of the standard until next year – with a few years for the legislation to pass through the house and for it to be set up – raises the possibility of new coal-fire power stations slipping through the system.

The news comes as more than 14,000 people have objected to plans for a similar new coal-fired power station at Hunterston in Ayrshire

Greenpeace energy campaigner, Joss Garman, said:

"David Cameron made the introduction of new rules to stop the most polluting power stations one of his flagship green policies, and Nick Clegg helped ensure it was a key part of the coalition agreement.

Both Lib Dem and Conservative MPs voted for the introduction of such a measure just a few months ago, and if they U-turn on this and fail to put this measure into their new energy law, how can they claim to be the greenest government ever?"

This blog will continue to oppose any new Kingsnorth proposal until the science behind Carbon sequestration can be proven.

Shame as Youth Unemployment Rockets

Medway was shamed today as the United Kingdom hotspot for increasing unemployment amongst 18-24 year olds.

The number of long-term young unemployed people has doubled in ten local authorities across the UK, with Medway (+158 per cent), West Lothian (+121 per cent) and South Ayrshire (+120 per cent) experiencing the sharpest increases. Medway is now the worst area of increase in youth unemployment in the United Kingdom.

The TUC analysis of Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) data shows that the number of young people claiming the dole for over six months has increased by 21 per cent in the last year to reach 103,230 in June 2010.

However the number of 18-24 year olds claiming JSA represents less than a third of the total number of young people out of work for over six months, which reached 338,000 between March and May 2010.

Southampton (-62 per cent), Stirling (-46 per cent) and Halton (-44 per cent) have experienced the sharpest falls in long-term youth unemployment levels over the last year.

The rise can now be directly blamed on successive government policies. With unemployment figures showing a further rise in long-term unemployment, and the Bank of England set to reduce its quarterly growth forecasts, it is now time that the Conservative Government accept that its overly aggressive language on deficit reduction will impact consumer confidence and is likely to harm the recovery. Sentiment, a rare commodity, is flagging.

The rise in youth unemployment are a warning that deep and early spending cuts, before the private sector has recovered, will only hurt our young people more.

Medway has suffered in part by falling aspiration. The Conservative closure of the dockyard and the cuts to education budgets through the 1980s and 1990s left not only a generation of unemployed but a legacy which remains to this day, where pockets of the town remain hotspots for worklessness. This culture was embedded under Thatcher and has remained stubbornly entrenched ever since. The closure of the Dockyard, a major employer, has not been matched since. Low-skilled workers remain at the mercy of cyclical economic trends and a lack of industrial blue-collar work and the closure of military bases has led to serious problems.

The proximity of Universities and improvement in education is the solution for future generations which is why it is key that per pupil funding is maintained.

According to the TUC,

'Young people were hit particularly hard by the recession and with the Government focusing on spending cuts, rather than getting people back into work, they may not fare much better during the recovery.

'Previous investment in employment schemes helped to keep many thousands of young people off benefits and in paid work. But having made an early decision to scrap the £1.2 billion Future Jobs Fund and the Young Person's Guarantee, the Government has yet to announce similarly well-funded support to get people back into decent paid work. Young people struggling for work this summer should be very concerned by the Government's silence.'

Tory polices are only making matters worse. Medway Council has been forced to scrap the Future Jobs Fund and other mechanisms to reduce youth unemployment and it is this bloggers concern that young people across Medway now face a Conservative tripple-whammy. Not only are the aggressive cuts leading to sluggish growth, risk of double-dip and reduced employment, but the Conservatives are also cutting the benefits of those seeking work, and it is cutting the public sector staff who are employed to offer counsel and advice.

Yvette Cooper warned of the cuts to come:

The Big Society is a big idea. But it risks being seen as a slap in the face to hundreds of young people. It's the economy stupid and at present the Tories have over-egged the downside and risk sluggish growth.

A Coup 'what if'

The Tory win in River Ward and the news that local government selections for the Conservatives are nearing conclusion will no doubt be on the mind of our current leader of the Council, Cllr Rodney Chambers.

Cllr Rodney Chambers, a patrician one-nation type Conservative, has been in charge for years of a Tory group that despite the constant snipes, has largely benefited from the largesse passed onto it by the previous Labour Government. These moderate Tories are struggling, and it is rumoured that there is a genuine unhappiness at having to cut services amongst the leadership. A sense of frustration that not all has been achieved and that Medway deserved better from government.

The election of Cllr Craggs on Thursday now puts an early coup very much on the agenda it is this bloggers belief. As previously commented, the Tory selection meetings have been busy picking a new type of Conservative Councillor. Recognising the names, it seems that the libertarian-Thatcherite type are very much in the ascendency. The 'wets' as they were once termed are now on the decline. With squabbles seen in Peninsula and seats across Rochester & Strood it is very much evident to most, that change is coming.

Change incidentally which will see the Conservative Group lurch to the right.

But when?

The coup plotters, who rumours indicate, have previously harboured ambitions for leadership, have time to consider their position. They could act over the summer period, so ensuring a period of transition and a clean manifesto break with this current moderate Conservative administration, which has failed and gerrymandered resource away from key areas in Rochester, Strood and Chatham.

They can take over now, embed a new policy agenda, take some populist lines and fight to hold-the-line in May 2011. Of course key supporters will have the benefit of safe Tory wards, so should only loose a few seats next year, which ironically will only aid in the consolidation of power. The concern of course is should one of the plotters come from one of those marginal seats, they could very much be at risk. However, the election of this type of Tory Administration in a right wing manifesto, in a local ballot will also give the plotters some kind of democratic legitimacy and before next year, key leadership candidates could undertake the 'chicken run' which to non-politico's, is the flight of 'Council Cabinet holders' and 'leading Councillors' to safer wards. It is a process common-place in other areas.

Putting pressure on other selections in Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham & Rainham is far easier from a position of strength. These areas would be the weaker cousins of a new administration.

Cllr Chambers will now be looking to his legacy as leader and the 'politics' of being seen to go on his own terms. He must now be considering his position and will be aware that he can go now, on a electoral high, and with a semblance of having picked his own time to leave, or suffer the humility of perhaps being purged out next year in a coup, should Labour gain seats in the next election. Given the tightness of the polls and comments from Government Ministers on the sly to journalists, the Coalition is expecting a rough time of it early next year. Labour only needs a small swing in the national polls and we would pick up a number of wards on small swings.

This blogger is of course speculating and putting his proverbial finger in the wind. But a bright person can look at the situation and perhaps pose a potential 'what if' then it must be on the minds of those even brighter and closer to the action.

We will know soon enough. The window will close shortly and this blogger will go back to challenging the current administration of Cllr's Jarrett and Chambers.

Will they blink or will they go to kitchen draw. We will find out...

Tories to cut Military Helicopters

The country's helicopter fleet is facing 20 per cent cuts as the Ministry of Defence carries out Treasury demands for savings, the Evening Standard has reported tonight.

The Army, RAF and Navy are to be slashed by Dr Fox as he fails to defend his department from David Cameron and George Osborne cut's agenda.

A secret internal MoD memo has revealed that Defence Secretary Liam Fox is demanding savings of £3.96 billion across rotary wing aircraft in the Army, Royal Navy and RAF.

Among a string of options drafted by officials is the scrapping of the entire new £1.7 billion Lynx Wildcat fleet, the phasing out of Sea Kings and the “deletion” of the Puma fleet.

The confidential paper submitted to the Strategic Defence and Security Review shows that other helicopters facing reductions in numbers are Chinooks and Merlins.

The helicopter cuts emerged as the Defence Secretary today underlined how much pressure the MoD was under to meet the Government's drive to reduce the national deficit. It brings back memories locally of the Conservative closure of the Chatham Dockyard which decimated the local community, and whose legacy, still remains in joblessness locally.

The plans for deep cuts – part of wider 10-20 per cent cuts to the MoD budget – have infuriated military chiefs who battled hard to get their budgets up for operations in Afghanistan.

Hypocrites, David Cameron and Dr Fox also repeatedly criticised Gordon Brown and Labour for failing to provide the armed forces with the helicopters they needed but they have now shown the true two-faced nature of the government.

The strategic defence review is set to be completed by next month, ahead of the October spending review. It is predicted to fundamentally undermine the military and will stretch the military covenant to breaking point.

Dr Fox is at war with the Prime Minister and Chancellor who want to cut funding for the military even further.

River Ward Result

The votes cast were as follows, in order of position:

CRAGGS David George (Conservative) – 617 votes (44·6%, +5·6%)

JONES John Alun Charles (Labour) – 544 votes (39·4%, -0·7%)

HARRISON Garry (Liberal Democrat) – 104 votes (7·5%, -0·6%)

KEEVIL Steven Richard (Green Party) – 45 votes (3·3%, +3·3%)

RAVENSCROFT Brian Christian (BNP) – 39 votes (2·8%, +2·8%)

SANDS Ron (English Democrats) – 33 votes (2·4%, +2·4%)

Turnout was 25·3% (1,386 ballot papers, including postal votes, out of a ward electorate of 5,484). Just four ballot papers were disallowed (blank, spoiled or unclear where the cross had been placed).

The result did not come as a shock despite the commentary from outside observers. Box counts from the General Election night revealed a significant Tory majority in the ward which had been cultivated by a sitting Tory Councillor. It was noted that UKIP once again did not field a candidate in Rochester & Strood. An unholy alliance or mere coincidence?

This result was always going to be an odds-on punters bet on the Conservatives. This blog said as much yesterday whilst reserving judgement.

Obviously a disappointing result for Labour locally but will this now be the high water-mark for the Medway Conservatives?

Around the country Labour has been getting great results in council by-elections. The results in votes cast in all the council by-elections in July and in the first weeks of August show us neck and neck with the Tories on 34%. The Lib Dems were on 24%.

It is important to remember, and some leadership candidates seem clearly not to think, that winning in Kent is absolutely crucial if you are to win back Parliament. Voters in Medway are the middle-ground aspirational's who left the party in droves under Gordon Brown, and they must be courted aggressively over time to win back.

The vote yesterday was close and with other marginal wards at a knife edge across the town, a tipping point could see the Labour Group double in size on very small swings indeed.

It must be noted though, that the catch-up with the Tories is remarkable in view of the fact that only 14 weeks ago in the General Election Labour were only 8% behind the Tories. This shows that the party is determined to fight back. This blog strongly believes that support for the Government will ebb away even further as people see the risks that the Government is taking with the economy, when they feel the impact of the unfair VAT increase and the public service cuts.

There is encouraging news of more new members continuing to join the Labour Party. Across the country, the Party has gained 27,894 new members since May 6th. A third of these new members are people who have formerly supported the Lib Dems. Half are Labour voters who now believe that they must join the Labour Party to fight the Government and 10% have joined to take part in our leadership election.

Fair is Worth Fighting For

Tomorrow voters will go to the polls in River Ward on what will a referendum on the Conservative Council and our current coalition government.

The Tories are the punters favourites to win, though not this bloggers - with a government elected only three months ago and a large and active membership base of Councillors. Anything short of a victory for Tories would be seen as a massive slap in the face, and would be a shot across the bows of the Medway Conservative leadership, and the potential aspiring leader who has been involved in the campaign from its very inception. The antics of Mark Reckless in Parliament will also be on the ballot paper. Could his antics depress turnout? We will find out.

Could we be in for a shock?

Labour are coming from behind in the national polls, in an area which overwhelmingly voted Conservative only three months ago (from box returns in May). Labour have no national leader and a party which is correctly reflecting on what went right and wrong with 13 years in power. Our membership base is growing, but has suffered losses as a result of being in government. True that Labour had an excellent former Councillor Bill Esterson, selected his replacement quickly, and ran an effective ground and media campaign from the outset.

Campaigning hard and a strong candidate will make all the difference, and in that, John Jones and the Labour team deserves to win under the laws of natural justice.

This blogger believes that John has the experience, judgement, character and capability to be the best Councillor of all those on the ballot paper. He however faces a public that only 3 months rejected Labour by a 10% swing. Can he recoup? This blog believes and hopes he can.

The other minority parties have no chance of winning, though they have put in a spirited effort.

From Liberal Democrat Garry Harrison, who has set up a very open and well written website, with plenty of spirited comment. He will suffer with the collapse of the party nationally in the polls and the defection of Cllr Andy Stamp to the Independents. This blog is a big fan of online campaigning and salutes his effort.

The ever affable Green Party campaigner Steven Keevil, who regularly tweets about his antics has certainly worked very hard and deserves to pick up a few votes. One to keep an eye on and potentially a PPC for a Medway seat in the future. At some point, this blogger owes Mr Keevil a pint, to show that depsite the banter, it does hold the Greens and himself in high regard.

The other candidates have stood in countless other by-elections across Medway and are solid campaigners. The English Democrats, the new party, and the distinctly seperate BNP will no doubt be keeping an eye on tomorrow, to see if the working class base sticks with Labour or moves to the right or extreme right.

Dont hold your breath.

History shows that parties of the right tend to do very badly after Labour looses a General Election because the base tends to rally with a Tory government. Of course history does not always repeat itself...

Its going to be close.