Tory Economic Failure

After months of saying it, the sad fact is the Conservatives have been caught exposed as the predicted double-dip recession awaits us all. This was an utterly avoidable downturn had the Conservatives listened and accepted they were wrong on the recovery.

Labour has warned for months, including in the General Election, that the George Osborne plan was totally and utterly flawed.

He simply cut too far and too fast.

The Tory argument that Labour was being risky with the British Economy has been blown away with the Conservative Chancellor moving towards a Plan B. We have already seen fiscal stimulus with Quantitative Easing with the Bank of England, we note the infrastructure investment projects.

You wont hear this tomorrow but George Osborne is moving towards our position.

Unfortunately it comes too late. Today the OECD predicted the second recession; instead of apologising to the British Public we have Tory Ministers antogonising Unions and 'itching for a fight.' CCHQ even put out a most rediculous of attacks claiming that Labour would increase your mortgage interest by £5,000 per year.

It is utterly desperate stuff from a Party that is loosing its economic credibility after only 18 months in power.

Despite all the crap from Conservative Councillors about borrowing and investing; their own Chancellor is to rack huge amounts of debt - even more than Labour - so no pious lectures required. You lot have mucked up the recovery; 7 out of 10 voters think so.

The fact is the Tory government is set to borrow £46bn more than they originally planned – in March the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) increased its forecast for net borrowing by £45.6bn for 2011-12 to 2015-16. Goodness knows where we sit tomorrow.

Voters will remember this double-dip is a Conservative recession and it is a result of their mistakes. They were warned.

Labour stimulus during the last recession ensured the UK returned back to an even keel; Car scrappage, boiler scrappage, future jobs fund and government led construction made sure that the deficit began to shrink. And shrink it did. Before a single penny of the Tory cuts had even been implemented £39,000,000,000 had been wiped off the deficit.

This was not magic 'wot dunnit'. It was growth. The Deficit was only £136.7bn by the end of last financial year. The thing that we knew all along was that investment led growth would cure the deficit of its own accord.George Osborne will tacitly admit that when he institutes his £30bn infrastructure boost tomorrow.

He has accepted the Keynesian argument that you need investment led growth to shrink the deficit. It seems the only people who still hanker after deep cuts are the Thatcherites... and sadly we have a few of those in Rochester & Strood.

Why there is an alternative

Some excellent videos have been commissioned by the TUC which are a useful juxtapose to the arguments which are being spread by the Conservatives and their right wing supporters

Cuts Are Not The Cure from Unionfilms on Vimeo.

False economy film from Unionfilms on Vimeo.

Shame as Youth Unemployment Rockets

Medway was shamed today as the United Kingdom hotspot for increasing unemployment amongst 18-24 year olds.

The number of long-term young unemployed people has doubled in ten local authorities across the UK, with Medway (+158 per cent), West Lothian (+121 per cent) and South Ayrshire (+120 per cent) experiencing the sharpest increases. Medway is now the worst area of increase in youth unemployment in the United Kingdom.

The TUC analysis of Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) data shows that the number of young people claiming the dole for over six months has increased by 21 per cent in the last year to reach 103,230 in June 2010.

However the number of 18-24 year olds claiming JSA represents less than a third of the total number of young people out of work for over six months, which reached 338,000 between March and May 2010.

Southampton (-62 per cent), Stirling (-46 per cent) and Halton (-44 per cent) have experienced the sharpest falls in long-term youth unemployment levels over the last year.

The rise can now be directly blamed on successive government policies. With unemployment figures showing a further rise in long-term unemployment, and the Bank of England set to reduce its quarterly growth forecasts, it is now time that the Conservative Government accept that its overly aggressive language on deficit reduction will impact consumer confidence and is likely to harm the recovery. Sentiment, a rare commodity, is flagging.

The rise in youth unemployment are a warning that deep and early spending cuts, before the private sector has recovered, will only hurt our young people more.

Medway has suffered in part by falling aspiration. The Conservative closure of the dockyard and the cuts to education budgets through the 1980s and 1990s left not only a generation of unemployed but a legacy which remains to this day, where pockets of the town remain hotspots for worklessness. This culture was embedded under Thatcher and has remained stubbornly entrenched ever since. The closure of the Dockyard, a major employer, has not been matched since. Low-skilled workers remain at the mercy of cyclical economic trends and a lack of industrial blue-collar work and the closure of military bases has led to serious problems.

The proximity of Universities and improvement in education is the solution for future generations which is why it is key that per pupil funding is maintained.

According to the TUC,

'Young people were hit particularly hard by the recession and with the Government focusing on spending cuts, rather than getting people back into work, they may not fare much better during the recovery.

'Previous investment in employment schemes helped to keep many thousands of young people off benefits and in paid work. But having made an early decision to scrap the £1.2 billion Future Jobs Fund and the Young Person's Guarantee, the Government has yet to announce similarly well-funded support to get people back into decent paid work. Young people struggling for work this summer should be very concerned by the Government's silence.'

Tory polices are only making matters worse. Medway Council has been forced to scrap the Future Jobs Fund and other mechanisms to reduce youth unemployment and it is this bloggers concern that young people across Medway now face a Conservative tripple-whammy. Not only are the aggressive cuts leading to sluggish growth, risk of double-dip and reduced employment, but the Conservatives are also cutting the benefits of those seeking work, and it is cutting the public sector staff who are employed to offer counsel and advice.

Yvette Cooper warned of the cuts to come:

The Big Society is a big idea. But it risks being seen as a slap in the face to hundreds of young people. It's the economy stupid and at present the Tories have over-egged the downside and risk sluggish growth.