Boundary Changes

The English Boundary Commission published its draft recommendations to MPs at 12.30pm today, with an embargo for midnight.

Not surprisingly when you release anything secret to a gaggle of politicians it leaked like a sieve.

The other early observations are which MPs see their seats dissappear. A lot of early comment was around Vince Cable, whose seat is apparently merged with Zac Goldsmith in the new Richmond and Twickenham seat. A closer look suggests that most of his seat actually ends up in the new Teddington and Hanworth seat, which will notionally have a 11% Lib Dem majority… so Vince has a more vulnerable majority, but is not left seatless! George Osborne’s Tatton seat is no more… but forms the core of the new Northwich seat, which has a comfy 27% majority. Just because a seat’s name disappears or is merged with another, doesn’t mean they are left without a seat! Elsewhere of course, there are 50 MPs who really are losing their seats.

In Medway we have seen what I can honestly say was not predicted by anyone - it seems the wonks in the Boundary Commission have made some quite odd ward moves.

The present Chatham & Aylesford seat would acquire the three-member Conservative marginal Rochester South & Horsted ward from Rochester & Strood and in a peculiar twist, the two-councillor Safe Conservative Hempstead & Wigmore ward. Chatham & Aylesford would gain two wards from Tonbridge & Malling: East Malling, and West Malling & Leybourne. This would give Tracey Crouch a majority of 10,000-12,000 if the election were hold today.

Rochester & Strood would loose Rochester South & Horsted but gain the safe Labour seat of Chatham Central ward. This would cut Mark Reckless MPs majority from 10,000 to 8,000 if the election were repeated. All other wards remain in the constituency despite the speculation.

Gillingham & Rainham would loose Hempstead & Wigmore but gain Luton & Wayfield in what is an extremely odd move. It would have made more sense to transfer the River ward into Gillingham given its historical link with Brompton. We now have a peculiar situation where Chatham Highstreet and Dockyard are both in Rochester Constituency and Luton in Gillingham. This would cut the majority of Rehman Chisthi from 9,000 to 7,500 if the election were held today.

I suspect a few people will be representing that position.