Boundary Review

The modelling of a potential outcome of the forthcoming Parliamentary Boundary Review by Lewis Baston is being put online region by region on the Democratic Audit website. It shows which individual wards go into which of the seats Lewis has modelled.

Both the Medway News and Medway Messenger have picked up on the potential boundary changes in Medway over the last fortnight (see press report), which may see a major change in composition of all the three Medway seats, but specifically in the Rochester & Strood and Chatham & Aylesford constituencies.

The press have not presented good diagrams, or actually reported the Democratic Audit position entirely accurately however which was a little dissapointing.

It is worth pointing out that the Democratic Audit proposal is one suggested idea for Medway. There are also a number of other alternatives which actually resolve boundary issues with less movement of wards. Obviously these positions will be factored into any outcome. The Democrat Audit team also has close links with Liverpool University and has published in the Guardian which suggests left-leaning. A scientist would factor in potential bias.

At the moment the independent Boundary Commission for England are working on the new seats across the Country within a set tight timescale. We know that existing European Union regional borders will be maintained and that the South East region will loose one seat. We also know that existing geographical, cultural and where possible Local Administration borders have to be respected, but not necessarily followed.

The example by Democratic Audit is one such example for Medway which will see the Conservative-leaning Hoo peninsula and Isle of Grain moved into the marginal Gravesham constituency. This has historic precendence from prior to the 1970s where the wider 'Peninsula' was not part of the Medway area, and indeed in former years was not part of the prior Rochester & Chatham constituency.

The new constituency would see the urban Rochester and Chatham areas merge with Cuxton and Halling also moving to Gravesham or a new central Kent seat. Gillingham would swallow up the River Ward and Brompton which is likely to be broken into two over the next decade with regeneration works (though this is not factored into the final result). Brompton has historic links with Gillingham.

On these boundary changes Chatham and Aylesford MP Tracey Crouch would likely move into a new safer Conservative Kent seat, and loose any formal representation for citizens within the Medway Unitary Authority, who tend to reflect her Labour voting opposition. Mark Reckless MP would formerly represent the new uber-marginal seat of Rochester & Chatham, whilst Rehman Chisthi would sit on broadly the same seat as before, with a marginally safer position.

Whilst on the face of it this would result in a more likely Labour win in Rochester & Chatham in 2015 it may not be in the medium-long term interests of Labour in Medway to loose three marginal seats in favour of one Labour-leaning marginal and two Conservative safer seats. The party nationally will therefore negotiate on the basis of national interest not only for the Labour supporter but also to ensure that we do not see an entrenched democratic skew, based on seat boundaries, towards a Conservative Government.

An example of this would be the difference within parties as well; would Gravesham Labour, who have just won the Council, want to have a safer Conservative area added to the Council and/or Parliamentary seat. Parochial Labour Parties and CLPs will have a say, but a national policy position is the likely result. A united negotiating position is also a sensible course when engaged in Boundary Commission consultation, so I suspect the wishes of local Parties may not actually be as signficant as people assume. The same will happen, in reverse, in Conservative Associations, be that there concerns maybe more personality driven, given most wards in Kent have a Tory vote to a larger or lesser extent.

In addition, the Democratic Audit position does not respect potential City Status which is understandable currently, but not over the course of the Boundary Commission review. It would be very odd situation of wards being within a Medway City but being represented by an MP from a neighbouring urban area. Gravesham Council is also borough council and not unitary based model, so moving Councillors from one to another could be complicated and they would loose influence or in the case of some existing Councillors, loose their seats. Medway Council would also not want to loose the Peninsula as a tax-base and/or as a revenue generator for major industrial projects which pay subsidy into the Council. A number of future regeneration schemes also require close links with the Peninsula.

That is not to say that the Peninsula wards wont continue to be Medway Councillors and have a Gravesham MP. The Aylesford area within Tracey Crouch's seat does cross local government boundaries; but it is akward.

Add into this the current Conservative Party membership being skewed, according to anecdotal evidence, with the majority of members on the Peninsula, they are likely to fight tooth-and-nail to remain in the Medway area because they remain a financial resource base for the Medway Conservatives. The Medway Tories would not favour the Democratic Audit position, the Gravesham Tories will see it as an opportunity to gain finance and resource.

Add into the mix the fact the Conservative whips dislike the current incumbent in Rochester & Strood, and you could see some interesting negotiations and squabbles amongst Conservatives.

I therefore suspect proposals will be fought over tooth-and-nail. For my part I have no interest in getting engaged.

The timeframe for these boundary changes is tight. By this Autumn we will have the initial boundaries reviewed for consultation. Next year we will see formal consultation and reviews engaged (hopefully in full public) with a final outcome in 2013.