Labour has pulled ahead sharply in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, as both coalition parties lose support. The findings, published as Ed Miliband returns to Westminster after paternity leave, suggest only a minority of voters believe the coalition is taking Britain in the right direction.
The welcome news from the last fortnight is that Labour under Ed Miliband is now almost certainly on the cusp of overtaking the Conservative Party as the popular will of the people of this country.
This is welcome news and certainly, if reflected next May, would see Conservative and Liberal Democrat seats fall on large swings.
The closing of the polls over six-eight months represents the failure of David Cameron to connect with the British public. He failed to defeat Gordon Brown outright and with a new, younger, more dynamic leader, the Tories are now declining in the polls. It took the Tories eight years in opposition to catch up with Labour in the polls. It has taken a moderate and centrist Labour Party eight months.
The recent ICM poll of 38%, is two points higher than last month and the best in any ICM poll since Gordon Brown cancelled the planned 2007 general election.
Between them the coalition parties have shed five points. Conservative support has dropped three since last month to 36%, while the Liberal Democrats have fallen two points to 14%. The Lib Dem score is the lowest in the Guardian/ICM series since May 2001, and the lowest in any ICM poll since October 2007.
While 91% of the 2010 Conservative voters would vote that way again, and 93% of 2010 Labour voters, only 47% of 2010 Lib Dem voters plan to do the same. The Lib Dem vote has now fractured - they face certain electoral oblivion across a number of wards next year. The game is up, the curtains are closing on Cllr Geoff Juby and his less then fearsome collection of Councillors.
They know it, we know it, we all expect it.
Ed Miliband will be in Gillingham this weekend where he will make a key-note speech on the future of the Labour Party and the need to change to win.
Ed Miliband is a centrist new Labour leader who will represent the mainstream centre of the population. He will oppose over-aggressive Tory cuts to the NHS, Police and schools. He will oppose the increase in tution fee's to £9,000 per year and he will stand up for the squeezed middle class who are watching as Tories allow bankers to take million pound bonuses whilst millions struggle. A government that can bail out Ireland but can not bail out train commuters.
The Tories will try and push Labour to make policy judgements. Ed should resist this. The opposition does not need to set a narrative until it has had those debates about how it reflects the wishes of the British people. After 13 years, Labour has to learn its lessons, win Council seats, challenge the government and debate a new policy narrative.
We also need to defend a positive legacy of lower crime, cuts in waiting lists, a modern NHS, minimum wage and devolution of power. A legacy which was revolutionary in the late 1990s. We do need to reflect on how we went wrong but at some point move to focus on the likely public concerns of 2015, without making the same mistakes.
Labour needs to engage with an angry generation of new voters understandably reluctant to pay the bills of their parents? How can higher education be funded in ways that do not weight students with £40,000 dead weight in debt? What are the new routes to home ownership? How can new routes to employment be found for those unsuited to a paper-based degree? Fundamental questions which need to be answered.
The party has seen an increase in party membership of 20%, represented in the number of young Labour Candidates standing next year in Medway, requires new thinking on the role of a Labour member. We need to engage a new generation of voters, using the internet and social forums. We need to differentiate Labour as the younger aspiration party vs a Conservative Party locally which represents a dated dogma.
Lastly, the party needs to keep on engaging on this issues which motivate the middle class voter. We need to talk about police and fighting anti-social behaviour robustly. We need to talk about funding for carers and the elderly which is equitable. We need to talk about house prices and jobs and young people and their concerns around future debt and tuition fees. We need to talk about engaging in Europe, NATO and international bodies to improve our world and make it a safer place. We need to talk about managed immigration.
We also need to talk tax and maintaining a competitive economy which encourages business investment. Labour needs to represent small business owners across Medway.
If we can talk the language of the voters in Medway and win them over then Labour will once again return to its place in government.
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