The Labour lead in the polls has now been confirmed today by ComRes shows topline figures of CON 36%(+1), LAB 40%(+3), LDEM 12%(-4). This echoes polls from ICM which has a Con 36%, Lab 38%, LDem 14% (21/11) and IPSOS-Mori which has Con 37%, Lab 38%, LDem 13% ( 19 /11).
Margins of error aside, the evidence from polls points to a Labour recovery from before and under the leadership of Ed Miliband. Given our 10% gain in the polls since January 2010, Labour leaves 2010 in a happier place in the polls than it entered. Who would have thought that would have reflected a year in which it lost the General Election?
For the opposition there is reason to have some merriment this Christmas. The right-leaning YouGov polling (in the sense that Telegraph / News International favoured) over the last month, shows that government satisfaction is falling and that Labour is at least on level pegging with the Cameron government. Given the responses to Ed Miliband in the media this is a remarkable result given the Labour collapse in May 2010. The austerity message and unpopular measures from government have indeed been announced but the impacts are yet to be felt.
The attacks on Ed Miliband from the right are also failing to land; we have had the petty jibes, we have had 'ignore' him as an irrelevance to actively challenging him on his links with the Unions. All of these attacks have failed to find a resonance with the public who at this stage just see a man who beat his brother, an underdog who came through to win. Ed would do well to take the RedEd label and make it his own, he would do well to distance himself from the Unions and he will do well to reflect that he needs to be Prime Ministerial and not partisan. He is ticking some of those boxes already.
This blog is used to the media in Kent being anti-establishment. Tories claim it is left-wing bias but actually the media is just anti-politics. Given the media tends to reflect the popular opinion of its readership, its commentary on Ed Miliband and his visit was about as fair as you could expect. Ed Miliband can not give firm policies because that is the whole point of having a National Policy forum and re-engaging with people to get policies. If Ed had come out with clear policies now, he would have been attacked for running roughshod over internal democracy and it would not have been outward looking to the public. A strong party setting direction was one of the strengths and weaknesses of new Labour. It lectured and did not listen. It is akward for Labour members used to government, but now is the time to set the mood and to build the tent. It is not the time to put the chairs down and invite the guests.
The key message from the National Policy Forum through was not delivered from the podium but to Council candidates. Medway matters and it is clear that with a new generation of activists for Council seats, who are engaging on issues with popular appeal, and taking the issues to the Conservatives, that Labour has a drive to win here. Given our inherent disadvantage this is not a small achievement. The Liberal Democrats have lost their appeal and we are attracting members at such a pace currently, that I am meeting several a month who want to get out and engage. The Greens do not have the capability to win and are simply not speaking to people on the doorstep but only in the Council chamber. UKIP has been undermined locally. The BNP are skint. The English Democrats have no local recognition on the doorstep. The Liberal Democrats who were once in a position to challenge are on the defensive, with poor leadership.
Labour however in Kent is still decimated and this recovery in the national polls can not be directly translated into big swings in Kent wards. The polling figures are nation wide and may reflect the solidification of the Labour vote in Scotland, Wales and the Northern areas of the UK. This is supported by polling which shows that Labour has a 10% lead over the SNP in Scotland and a 26% lead over the Tories. Wales also shows a significant Labour gain since May. On such numbers, Labour will gain the Scottish executive and hold the Wales Assembly as a majority party. Converse polling in London where Boris Johnson is well ahead and you get the sense that there is perhaps still a long way to go.
Labour polling is improving in areas which have an historic link with Labour, where the Labour Party and its resources are concentrated, and where the Tories have a socio-population and polling disadvantage. This does bode well for seats locally in Strood South and Luton & Wayfield which have held Labour Councillors in the past and where Labour has polled about 35%.
It must not be underestimated however, that the Tories rule Kent like a fiefdom and are the party of the establishment. They have significant resource, now including MPs for every seat in the county, and have the ability, if organised, to destroy any opposition through out-funding and out-resourcing. The River ward and Luton & Wayfield by-elections also show that they play dirty despite the pleasant platitudes. These dynamics do not favour Labour even with current polling so the swings next year must be measured on this line. Resources for opposition parties therefore must be funded where it can achieve the most. Sadly, the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in Medway benefits Tories and Labour alike.
Polling in England is much more difficult due to major regional discrepancies, but taking into account by-election results from marginal wards in swing seats, we are now polling ahead of the Tories for all results pre-21/11. The River Ward poll is too localised to spell a message for May 2011 but it does show that where Labour speaks to its vote, increases postal vote turnout from those who are unable to reach the polling station, and constant engagement can reward.
The overwhelming message to the Conservatives in Medway is also not as stark as the polls suggest. Given the fact they could loose seats to Labour on these national figures including Strood South, Luton & Wayfield and Princes Park. It also ignores the fact they could gain from a Liberal Democrat collapse. The Tories could still run the Council next May. Given the selection-situation for all the Parties I would pose that unless the polls massively shift, we must look at this outcome as a real potential.
Despite the inherent advantage, the Tories in Medway are cumbersome and they dislike each other. They are also the incumbents on a Council which has made some public relation disasters and who fail to consult and who do outwardly resemble the past. Canvassing on the doorstep in marginal wards show discontent with the manner in which the Council is being managed and despite significant resource all historic precedence shows opposition party gains at the expense of the government. The Tories will have inherent weaknesses in the national polls but have the potential to show organisational strength. The underlying polls tell you one message, but they sadly, do not tell you the whole story.
Margins of error aside, the evidence from polls points to a Labour recovery from before and under the leadership of Ed Miliband. Given our 10% gain in the polls since January 2010, Labour leaves 2010 in a happier place in the polls than it entered. Who would have thought that would have reflected a year in which it lost the General Election?
For the opposition there is reason to have some merriment this Christmas. The right-leaning YouGov polling (in the sense that Telegraph / News International favoured) over the last month, shows that government satisfaction is falling and that Labour is at least on level pegging with the Cameron government. Given the responses to Ed Miliband in the media this is a remarkable result given the Labour collapse in May 2010. The austerity message and unpopular measures from government have indeed been announced but the impacts are yet to be felt.
The attacks on Ed Miliband from the right are also failing to land; we have had the petty jibes, we have had 'ignore' him as an irrelevance to actively challenging him on his links with the Unions. All of these attacks have failed to find a resonance with the public who at this stage just see a man who beat his brother, an underdog who came through to win. Ed would do well to take the RedEd label and make it his own, he would do well to distance himself from the Unions and he will do well to reflect that he needs to be Prime Ministerial and not partisan. He is ticking some of those boxes already.
This blog is used to the media in Kent being anti-establishment. Tories claim it is left-wing bias but actually the media is just anti-politics. Given the media tends to reflect the popular opinion of its readership, its commentary on Ed Miliband and his visit was about as fair as you could expect. Ed Miliband can not give firm policies because that is the whole point of having a National Policy forum and re-engaging with people to get policies. If Ed had come out with clear policies now, he would have been attacked for running roughshod over internal democracy and it would not have been outward looking to the public. A strong party setting direction was one of the strengths and weaknesses of new Labour. It lectured and did not listen. It is akward for Labour members used to government, but now is the time to set the mood and to build the tent. It is not the time to put the chairs down and invite the guests.
The key message from the National Policy Forum through was not delivered from the podium but to Council candidates. Medway matters and it is clear that with a new generation of activists for Council seats, who are engaging on issues with popular appeal, and taking the issues to the Conservatives, that Labour has a drive to win here. Given our inherent disadvantage this is not a small achievement. The Liberal Democrats have lost their appeal and we are attracting members at such a pace currently, that I am meeting several a month who want to get out and engage. The Greens do not have the capability to win and are simply not speaking to people on the doorstep but only in the Council chamber. UKIP has been undermined locally. The BNP are skint. The English Democrats have no local recognition on the doorstep. The Liberal Democrats who were once in a position to challenge are on the defensive, with poor leadership.
Labour however in Kent is still decimated and this recovery in the national polls can not be directly translated into big swings in Kent wards. The polling figures are nation wide and may reflect the solidification of the Labour vote in Scotland, Wales and the Northern areas of the UK. This is supported by polling which shows that Labour has a 10% lead over the SNP in Scotland and a 26% lead over the Tories. Wales also shows a significant Labour gain since May. On such numbers, Labour will gain the Scottish executive and hold the Wales Assembly as a majority party. Converse polling in London where Boris Johnson is well ahead and you get the sense that there is perhaps still a long way to go.
Labour polling is improving in areas which have an historic link with Labour, where the Labour Party and its resources are concentrated, and where the Tories have a socio-population and polling disadvantage. This does bode well for seats locally in Strood South and Luton & Wayfield which have held Labour Councillors in the past and where Labour has polled about 35%.
It must not be underestimated however, that the Tories rule Kent like a fiefdom and are the party of the establishment. They have significant resource, now including MPs for every seat in the county, and have the ability, if organised, to destroy any opposition through out-funding and out-resourcing. The River ward and Luton & Wayfield by-elections also show that they play dirty despite the pleasant platitudes. These dynamics do not favour Labour even with current polling so the swings next year must be measured on this line. Resources for opposition parties therefore must be funded where it can achieve the most. Sadly, the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in Medway benefits Tories and Labour alike.
Polling in England is much more difficult due to major regional discrepancies, but taking into account by-election results from marginal wards in swing seats, we are now polling ahead of the Tories for all results pre-21/11. The River Ward poll is too localised to spell a message for May 2011 but it does show that where Labour speaks to its vote, increases postal vote turnout from those who are unable to reach the polling station, and constant engagement can reward.
The overwhelming message to the Conservatives in Medway is also not as stark as the polls suggest. Given the fact they could loose seats to Labour on these national figures including Strood South, Luton & Wayfield and Princes Park. It also ignores the fact they could gain from a Liberal Democrat collapse. The Tories could still run the Council next May. Given the selection-situation for all the Parties I would pose that unless the polls massively shift, we must look at this outcome as a real potential.
Despite the inherent advantage, the Tories in Medway are cumbersome and they dislike each other. They are also the incumbents on a Council which has made some public relation disasters and who fail to consult and who do outwardly resemble the past. Canvassing on the doorstep in marginal wards show discontent with the manner in which the Council is being managed and despite significant resource all historic precedence shows opposition party gains at the expense of the government. The Tories will have inherent weaknesses in the national polls but have the potential to show organisational strength. The underlying polls tell you one message, but they sadly, do not tell you the whole story.
Expectations therefore managed.