Southern Discomfort Again?

It is with some expectation that Musings from Medway has been awaiting the publication of the latest pamphlet entitled 'Southern Discomfort Again' from the Policy Network.

The full link to the document and polling can be found on the Policy Network website.

As a fan of the previous document 'Southern Discomfort' which was published after Labour lost in 1992, it has been a little known but hugely influential piece which sets a clear narrative for Labour renewal, especially in the South East.

It also sets a discourse which this blogger believes Labour must use if it is to win the South East marginals in 2015 or 2020.

I attended the Southern Discomfort fringe at the Labour Party conference, one of a number of members, and was able to contribute from the floor on what I called 'Medway Man' or in other terms C2DE Southern aspirational swing voters who are typically conservative but are also persuaded by community.

'Medway Man' is aspirational, support the family, tough on law and order, distrustful of overweening government but also fervently pro the NHS, pro better education and pro opportunity for children.

'Medway Man' being from the largely C2DE socio-economic groupings are persuaded by the national narrative as opposed to the local. At different electoral periods this blogger suggested, they swing vote Labour or Conservative because at different periods, leaders (and presidential type leaders they are now) will persuade voters to accept one narrative as a priority.

The blogger agreed however that economic security and prosperity was the bedrock upon which the above can be contextualised. Having a strong leader with the wrong narrative will only lead to worse defeat.

This blogger suggested that for cultural reasons the C2DE socio-economic groups in the Midlands, North, Scotland and Wales were culturally more likely to vote Labour because ingrained in the community was an inherent anti-Conservative narrative, based on historical circumstance. This is potentially why constituencies with similar demographics to Medway in the North were retained by Labour on smaller swings.

It is clear that Southern voters abandoned Labour in their droves at the last election because the party failed to address their insecurities, according to the new document. 67 per cent of respondents in the south believe Labour is “close to benefit claimants” and “the trade unions”, while 57 per cent of those surveyed believe Labour is close to immigrants.

The research, a sequel to the 1992 early-Blairite leaflet “Southern Discomfort”, produced by Giles Radice, also demonstrates how the Conservatives outperformed Labour amongst “aspiring” southern voters on major issues. It revealed that 78 per cent of those voters believed the Tories were “close to people in the south” and a further 69 percent thought the Conservatives were close to the middle class and homeowners.

In the May General Election, Labour lost 57 seats in the South and Midlands, almost two-thirds of its loss of 91 seats – this reflected Labour’s inability to adapt to the “age of insecurity”, according to YouGov’s Peter Kellner. Lord Radice, meanwhile, told the event the 1992 and 2010 research had remarkable parallels, particularly on “the party’s inability to appeal to relatively affluent classes and white collar workers”.

He said:

“Now voters feel very insecure about themselves and their future. There is extreme skepticism about what Labour now stands for. No longer are we seen as the party of fairness. Voters are saying ‘we put everything in and get nothing back from Government’ and they no longer trust us on the economy.”

The research also reveals that only 16 per cent trust Labour to run the economy, only 12 per cent trust the party to reduce the deficit, and 12 per cent believe it would “get value for money on behalf of taxpayers”. Additionally, a staggering 47 per cent believe that public spending under Labour was wasted and did not improve services – Lord Radice described this as “the most disappointing finding of the whole survey”.

To combat this perception gap and win back southern voters, the report argues that Labour must address their concerns – particularly reestablishing its reputation for economic competence, its support of individual aspiration and grasping the nettle of the immigration issue.

Labour must change its narrative to voters stressing each of the above. It must become part of our narrative in the South East. Stressing the support for small business and those that work in the private sector, which incidentally include Labour supporters in Kent. Stressing the need for a more conciliatory approach to cuts, and not the over-aggressive cuts which will damage regional growth and prosperity.

It is also true to say that there are organisational differences between the parties in the North and South. The North has stronger Labour support and therefore a bigger base of resources. The same could be said of the Conservatives in the South. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that voters in high contact rate seats in the South East swung on similar to those on low contact rates. Therefore these voters were not persuaded by the ground war as much as people assume, especially in areas with a high C2DE voting population. Obviously there are other factors; media support (locally and nationally) and family/cultural bias.

The challenge for Labour will be to represent the 'squeezed middle class' on issues which affect them and their families; small business, tuition fees, immigration, fuel cost, jobs, schools, train fare increases, NHS and keeping crime low.

If Labour can win these arguments and make a case for less aggressive cuts (which incidentally the public currently support) than we will win big next year and could be in with a shout in 2015, boundary gerrymandering depending.

If we resort to the language of the closed-shop, of waving the red-flag, of pursuing sectional interest over the majority interest, of being too close to the Unions, then we will not win in Medway and we could loose elsewhere.

Ed Miliband has set the right tone for victory. He will be sensitive to 'Medway Man'