A Coup 'what if'

The Tory win in River Ward and the news that local government selections for the Conservatives are nearing conclusion will no doubt be on the mind of our current leader of the Council, Cllr Rodney Chambers.

Cllr Rodney Chambers, a patrician one-nation type Conservative, has been in charge for years of a Tory group that despite the constant snipes, has largely benefited from the largesse passed onto it by the previous Labour Government. These moderate Tories are struggling, and it is rumoured that there is a genuine unhappiness at having to cut services amongst the leadership. A sense of frustration that not all has been achieved and that Medway deserved better from government.

The election of Cllr Craggs on Thursday now puts an early coup very much on the agenda it is this bloggers belief. As previously commented, the Tory selection meetings have been busy picking a new type of Conservative Councillor. Recognising the names, it seems that the libertarian-Thatcherite type are very much in the ascendency. The 'wets' as they were once termed are now on the decline. With squabbles seen in Peninsula and seats across Rochester & Strood it is very much evident to most, that change is coming.

Change incidentally which will see the Conservative Group lurch to the right.

But when?

The coup plotters, who rumours indicate, have previously harboured ambitions for leadership, have time to consider their position. They could act over the summer period, so ensuring a period of transition and a clean manifesto break with this current moderate Conservative administration, which has failed and gerrymandered resource away from key areas in Rochester, Strood and Chatham.

They can take over now, embed a new policy agenda, take some populist lines and fight to hold-the-line in May 2011. Of course key supporters will have the benefit of safe Tory wards, so should only loose a few seats next year, which ironically will only aid in the consolidation of power. The concern of course is should one of the plotters come from one of those marginal seats, they could very much be at risk. However, the election of this type of Tory Administration in a right wing manifesto, in a local ballot will also give the plotters some kind of democratic legitimacy and before next year, key leadership candidates could undertake the 'chicken run' which to non-politico's, is the flight of 'Council Cabinet holders' and 'leading Councillors' to safer wards. It is a process common-place in other areas.

Putting pressure on other selections in Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham & Rainham is far easier from a position of strength. These areas would be the weaker cousins of a new administration.

Cllr Chambers will now be looking to his legacy as leader and the 'politics' of being seen to go on his own terms. He must now be considering his position and will be aware that he can go now, on a electoral high, and with a semblance of having picked his own time to leave, or suffer the humility of perhaps being purged out next year in a coup, should Labour gain seats in the next election. Given the tightness of the polls and comments from Government Ministers on the sly to journalists, the Coalition is expecting a rough time of it early next year. Labour only needs a small swing in the national polls and we would pick up a number of wards on small swings.

This blogger is of course speculating and putting his proverbial finger in the wind. But a bright person can look at the situation and perhaps pose a potential 'what if' then it must be on the minds of those even brighter and closer to the action.

We will know soon enough. The window will close shortly and this blogger will go back to challenging the current administration of Cllr's Jarrett and Chambers.

Will they blink or will they go to kitchen draw. We will find out...